The Sound of Rocks Rolling

I love it when Jim spells it out for what it is.  The end of the road for global finance.  Believe it.  You won’t need to believe for long. 

It’s here.

It’s now.

It’s what it is. 

It’s all that there is, and it’s all over – bar the soundtrack of a crumbling system.

Time to think about what comes after …for real. 

“Forced Liquidation” – Kunstler

It’s All Different Now

It’s all different now.  Nothing will be normal again.  Believe it.

And I can’t describe it as well as some others, so…  what he said – on Friday…
“Black Swans, Dead Cats, Live Bats, and Goodbye to All That” – Kunstler

And, what he said… today…
“Things Have Changed” – Kunstler

All pointers indicate that this is the big one folks. Our past-it’s-best civilisation is now in free-fall. Recovery is unlikely. Look to your own safety. Don’t trust the words of others, including me.

…and be aware that communications like this may not be around for much longer …but that will be the least of our problems.

Everything, of course, is up in the air at the moment and nothing is real until it is. I just report based on the indications and from what my expectations are. The world we have built is resilient, but only when the foundations are firm and solid. The foundations of society are anything but firm and solid right now – and they have been shaky for quite some time. The current situation has all the indications of being the straw that broke the camel’s back.

The Time Has Come…

It is something that has been said (by people like me – and a few experts) for quite some time, but now in a severe warning of things about to burst upon an unprepared and disbelieving humanity, Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML) analysts say a range of economic and social challenges are “all heading to a boiling point” next decade.

“The 2020s are set to be an economic turning point, says global banking giant”

Welcome to “the decade of peak”.

Quoting from the BAML report, this article from Australia’s ABC News says:

“We enter the next decade with interest rates at 5,000-year lows, the largest asset bubble in history, a planet that is heating up, and a deflationary profile of debt, disruption and demographics.”

“We will end it with nearly 1 billion people added to the world, a rapidly ageing population, up to 800 million people facing the threat of job automation and the environment on the brink of catastrophic change.” 

Allow me to explain the “nearly 1 billion people added” remark (because it is significant). 

It is not the nearly ‘8 billion’ that you may be thinking of.  We are there now, with a 7.75 billion total due to be hit next month and the full 8 billion due before the end of 2022.

No, we will be way beyond that by the end of the next decade, with the 9th billion scheduled (barring accidents) for 2033 at the current rate of growth.  So it is nearly 9 billion people the report is talking about who will be trying to make a life for themselves at the end of the 2020s on a much depleted and wilder planet than we see now.  Think about that.

The 1981-2016 era of unchecked flow of goods, people and capital is coming to an end…” is the message.  Think about that also, and reflect on the fact that 1981-2016 is the period when most of the people alive today came into the world and is therefore the only world situation that most people alive today have ever known

All that these folk have ever known is about to be swept away, and I dare say – never to return.  Once the merry-go-round stops, it will be impossible to restart. You might want to think about that too.

Are you prepared?

Do you see in the world today – the conflict, the unrest, the riots, the terrorism, the poverty, the unprecedented wealth gap between the rich and the rest (and which group are you in?), the inaffordability of all but the basic necessities for most folk, the loss of rights, freedoms and liberties, the growing oppression from governments struggling to make ends meet and deal with the growing unrest, the tightening of laws, the gradual withdrawal of a cash economy? And much more.

Do you see all of that?  And do you wonder what is going on?  Do you wonder how it came to this and where things are going? 

Well, you won’t need to wonder for much longer.  We will all be living it.

Believe it, or not.

Many a time have I said, and written here and elsewhere, that the year 2020 would mark the beginning of this huge change, no not change, it can only be described as an upheaval – an upheaval of such magnitude as to be civilisation ending.  I don’t crow about having made such a prediction (which is yet to happen of course), but I have felt it in my bones for some time.  And while such events are likely to be the end of me personally, I do not seek to fight the prospect.  In fact I see it as a necessary step in human development.  A step which may actually see an end to all humanity but may also provide the conditions where a new beginning could emerge, perhaps only on a very small scale.

That does not mean that we should give up all hope and not prepare ourselves as best we can to give ourselves the best chance to come through to the other side of the calamity that must surely confront us when these predictions come to pass.  Who knows how many, where, and exactly who will survive?  And luck may have a say in that, meaning those best equipped may not be among them. Though all things being equal, preparedness will undoubtedly bring some advantage.

I have said enough here.  What happens to you and those you love, not only in the next decade, but if you make it it will be a gruelling lifelong task to rebuild any kind of comfortable existence in the new world that emerges. 

All that, is basically down to you and those you meet and have community with in the future.

Good luck.

The End of Human Rights

As we bid goodbye to 2018 – and why wouldn’t we want to? – it is time to take a very brief – we don’t need to look too closely or we might become a little despondent – look at what the past year has been all about.

One thing, above all else, stands out from a crowded year. Human rights. Just about everything that has occurred this year has had at its core the subject of, neglect of, denial of, striving for or abuse of, human rights. I don’t think I need to go into all the specifics of these things. If you don’t agree with my assessment, stop wasting your time, go read somewhere else.

We, as a people today, place great emphasis on the rights of human beings, and consider it of such importance that organisations at all levels of human society have been set up to define and/or enforce what we think of as an unalienable and irrevocable part of our heritage within the human family. Yet the very fact that this has been thought necessary, speaks volumes as to the fragility of our position even amongst ourselves.

I pulled this quote, a brief definition of human rights, from the latest book I am reading, which was the final ‘spark’ I needed to write this piece:

‘…rights to the benefits of culture, to property, to the preservation of health, life, physical integrity, security, and a means of subsistence, and to residence, movement, and inviolability of the home.’

– Lynas, Mark. Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet (p. 75). HarperCollins Publishers. Kindle Edition.

Let us ask ourselves the question: If we require, for peace of mind and physical well-being , such rules of law around our personal rights, enforcible, though quite obviously often ignored, waived, or indeed frequently and rudely stomped on, among the human community, even now, in what is supposed to be an enlightened age of cultural enrichment, economic prosperity and advanced technological progress –

a) How will, or do, we fare as but a small though influential part of the natural world and life of our home planet, when that natural world presents itself as less benign or implacable, and much more forcefully antagonistic to our shared existence here than it has fortuitously been in the recent past of our living memory?

b) How will we fare on this issue in a time when our ‘enlightened age of cultural enrichment, economic prosperity and advanced technological progress’ is somehow removed or ripped away from our grasp and we are plunged into a state of much lowered expectations or even into a ‘survival of the fittest’ situation?

I feel sure you will understand to what I am referring there. The two most pressing of a whole bunch of unwelcome strangers knocking at our door – Climate Change and Imminent Economic Collapse. The former being a now unstoppable inevitability which is even now breaking down the last barriers of natural resistance to thoroughly overwhelm us in the immediate to long term future – like it or not. The latter almost as inevitable because of our innate inability to stop and think about what we are doing, leave alone any possibility that we may unilaterally decide to change our way of life to accept ‘less’. The usual obscene spending spree of the past week, pledges to that thought.

These things, either acting separately or together, will bring to an end once and for all the question of human rights, bringing with them an eventual, perhaps even an abrupt, overturning of all that has come to mean human society and civilisation. And without that overarching structure in place at all levels of human society, the concept of ‘rights’ will have no meaning – at least for a while – and think, if you have any concept of history, how long a struggle it has been to get to where we are today of those issues, and how relatively ineffective that progress is even today.

So, what have we to look forward to, as the page of history turns once more?

Hh-hh-hh-hh-h. (that was a resigned and suppressed – no heaving of either chest or shoulders – chuckle)

Welcome to 2019, which may well be the year that marks the end of human rights.

…and here, from Wondermom Wannabe, and not more than a hint of sarcasm from me, is the opportunity for you to record the highlights of your life – in a free, printable, review of 2018…

“Bye Bye America” – Part 2

You can’t, with any hope of retaining much in the way of credibility, say on one day “Bye Bye America” – a story of societal collapse – and on the very next day say “Is America Really Collapsing?” – another story of societal collapse with a note of hope at the end.  Yet this is exactly what Umair Hague has done in his follow-up piece on Medium.

He outlines in some detail just what, or some of what, societal collapse means, defining it as “a process of going from function through dysfunction to malfunction, a journey, in other words from one system state to a higher entropic state. An intrinsically one-way process – you can’t unscramble an egg.

Having then outlined four ways that America is in collapse, namely: Political Collapse, Social Collapse, Economic Collapse and Eudaimonic Collapse (you’ll need to read the article) – and this is not by any means an exhaustive list of the possible ways in which a society can fall apart – Hague then goes on to talk about the generally accepted view that a collapse is in essence ‘unstoppable’ as not applying, or – “is not the case with societies”.

What is it with doom-writers not being able to face up to the inevitability of what they clearly see coming up for sections of humanity?  They never seem to be able to abandon hope and think clearly on what to actually do in the aftermath of the events of which they tell.  Always looking around for any tiny speck of hope.  It’s nuts …and facing reality takes courage, not to mention – some sort of plan.  But not a plan which merely hopes to stop the unstoppable in its tracks and back it up to some earlier point in its prior path, based entirely on the good will and enthusiasm of the very people who set the unstoppable train of events in motion in the first place.   Such a plan could aptly be described as ‘pure folly’, whether applied at the purely personal or at a local, national or truly global level.

Now, just a final point.  I was thinking of, or trying to come up with a precedent for the type of social recovery (the ‘minor miracles’ he spoke of previously) of which Hague and other writers are so keen to have us believe.  One might think of post-war Germany or Japan as examples of such, arising from the utter destruction of that time to become major societal economies in the modern world.  However, the ruination of those particular nations in the middle of last century was not specifically or directly a result of societal collapse, moral, social, political or any other -wise.  The destruction of those nations was in each case not as a result of a decay of the central core of the nation, its peoples – those remained essentially, morally, spiritually, etc., intact throughout the ordeal of the forced collapse of their material and economic national structures through acts of war.  Two things then were central to their phoenix-like rise from the ashes.  Firstly the central core of national pride, the people themselves, and secondly they could call on the developing availability of world resources which came fully into prominence, profligate prominence from that time until today.  It was entirely a point-in-time thing, employed alike by many nations around the world to rebuild themselves at the same time.  The likes of which had never been seen before and sadly, after less than a century of complete and obscene global madness during which the world ‘partied’ in a once only orgy of digging things up and using them, it will never serve as an option for humanity to enjoy again.  At least on the same scale – the scale of rebuilding nations into any form of structure we would today recognise as being the equivalent of modern society.

So, there we have it, believe it or not, won’t make any difference.  Undoing collapse today can never return us to any resemblance of yesterday. There is no point starting something you can’t finish.

Someone should tell that to Donald Trump …and all other national leaders who continue to seek the elusive ephemera of ‘economic growth’ or ‘growth and jobs’ or simply ‘jobs, jobs, jobs’.

America is on the way down.  Basically, we are all on the way down.  The West, being for so long standing on the upper rungs of the ladder, will feel it the hardest when there are no more ladders to climb over the shoulders of other people.  A level playing field should look the same to everybody.



BHP, Suffering A Panic Attack

I think the world’s biggest mining corporation (that’s BHP Billiton) is in big trouble this year, although it may not surface until next.  At the very least, it is a huge gamble.

BHP is banking on a big turnaround in the price of oil to something like $50 dollars a barrel over the next year and is looking to buy up cheap oil assets from the expected crowd of bankrupt oil companies over the same period.

Ahem… Shouldn’t somebody be asking, “What sort of investment strategy is that?”

Not very clear forward thinking, to my mind.  I would have thought a more positive approach would have been to diversify out of mining, myself.  There’s not much future to that line of work.  They only have to look at their 86% first half profit downturn from $5.4 billion last year to $751 million this year.  The mining industry is on its last legs.  Not just temporarily, but for good.

And that hoped for $50 per barrel oil price?  Sheeesh!  Even at that lofty price (it was $120 or more per barrel 2 years ago) is not commensurate with trading at a profit.  You only have to remember back a few months, maybe six or so, when oil was fetching more than $50, and still, even back then, that’s when oil companies were in deep trouble and paddling like crazy to stay afloat, selling assets and buying their own shares just to maintain the illusion that all was well.

WHAT IS BHP THINKING?  The World’s Biggest Miner May Be About to Toast Its Oil Drillers  Toast its oil drillers?  The whole organisation is going to be toast.


Nothing good is going to come of this.  Thank goodness. But why am I concerned?  Well, actually I am not concerned, in the slightest.  I just allot some time most days looking for evidence that the world economy is sinking into the mire.  I don’t usually have to look very far to find it.

The cracks are beginning to grow wider in our crumbling global economy on a daily basis.

Those who should be, those so-called Captains of Industry, are no longer thinking straight.  Hence the raising of ideas like this ludicrous strategy of BHP.  Isn’t the pursuit of such activity as that, known as ‘panic’?

Icons like BHP will fail and fall just as quickly as many lesser-known entities.  The sooner the better, for the world’s sake.

Time To Remove Those Rose Coloured Spectacles

If ever you wanted to see a list of doom and gloom pointers from a wide variety of sources (and I doubt that you ever did) to the imminence of global financial, social, economic and moral collapse leading to a complete disintegration of modern civilisation, then this is it.

This post inspired by: The Automatic Earth: Debt Rattle October 26 2015

Are you once again going to ignore the reports and underlying signs and carry on as though nothing is happening?  Or do you already see this and share with me the relief in knowing that things are coming to a head and that our headlong, thoughtless rush to consume and destroy everything that we can lay our hands on is about to stumble and fall and its suicidal mission to utterly fail and collapse and bury us all beneath the debris of our own doings?

When Will The “Nothing Is Happening” Crowd Finally Wake Up?

When will the “nothing is happening” crowd finally wake up?, asks Michael Snyder.  Good question.

World economies are crashing around our ears, but is anyone paying any attention? Media?  Governments?  Investors?  You?  Me?  Oh… well… leave me out of it.  I’m continually trying to tell the story.

“Hopefully it will be before they are sitting out on the street begging for spare change to feed their family.”, says Michael Snyder.  Hmm… Yes… Well… that would be a wake up call, wouldn’t it?

This post inspired by: The Stock Markets Of The 10 Largest Global Economies Are All Crashing by Michael Snyder at The Economic Collapse blog.

In The Year 2045

Do you have a reasonable expectation of being alive in 2045, another thirty years from now?  I expect I might have some hope of living for another 20 years or so but I would reach 100 years in 2045 and not many men do that.  My mother though met that target this year so, just perhaps, I stand a better chance than most.

What will life be like in 2045?  Well, the UK Ministry of Defence has recently released its periodic Global Strategic Trends report out to that year, see article on motherboard: There is a link to the pdf report in this article.

While taking into account that extrapolation reaching that far into the future is at best chancy, they have taken the best estimates on offer, and it doesn’t present a particularly great picture to say the least.  But then, I have been warning about similar things here and elsewhere for some time now.

On the whole I think they portray rather rosier conditions for business, technology and economics than I would, but then they haven’t taken a particularly strong position on the effects of population, resource depletion, and the possibility of economic collapse long before the possibility of the technologies that they predict can be developed, that I would.

It is though, quite interesting and thought provoking, especially to those who would continue to maintain that a life well lived by a few might somehow influence the creation of a better world for the many who don’t give those things a second thought.

I Am An Abject Failure

I am an abject failure.

I do not say this from some depressed state, some suicidal thought, some tendency to self-flagellate.  It is not some morbid attempt to heap shit on myself.

It is simply that I recognise my own limitations, my unfulfilled hopes and desires.  It is an acknowledgement that my vision is greater than my capability or strength to describe it or to bring it to a state of realisation.  It is an acceptance that the task is too great and I am not among those great persons who have taken on insurmountable tasks and somehow accomplished them.

Taking a stand on anything that lays outside of the normal, restrictive and increasingly shrinking thought patterns of a society intent on pursuing fatuous and frivolous goals of personal happiness, comfort and wealth, carries consequent risk of being perceived as raving lunacy, perversion, or some dangerous threat to the status quo, which should be extinguished or removed from sight to avoid unnecessary disturbance to the flow.

To these charges I must plead guilty.  I must also from time to time re-evaluate my reasons for taking a stand on ideas that are not generally held but which I see as being of great importance for me and all humanity.  Does ridicule or ignorance (in the sense of being ignored) bother or hurt me or sway my views?  Am I expecting to achieve some sort of success?  Or do I do this simply because it seems the right thing to do, whatever the consequences?  Should I continue, or just sit back quietly and watch?  Should I respond to my feelings, or suppress them?  Should I try to fit in, or continue to be some kind of mysterious and awkward enigma?  Essentially, do I care what other people think of me?

I will answer only the last question here, by saying “Some, but not much.”

The dashboard here on my blog is littered with unfinished and unpublished posts that I was at some stage influenced or inflamed to begin but for some reason did not complete or felt the need to withhold from publication.  Then again, so many of my aroused thoughts and so much of my accumulated knowledge never gets to the point of actually being committed to writing in the first place.

Diligently pursuing an idea or project to conclusion is quite exhausting and there is only so much that an individual person can do.

But I do what I can.  Failure, or not.

What happened to bring me to this place?

Well, I guess it was a confluence of many things culminating with my reading this morning the latest article from George Monbiot, ‘Loss Adjustment’ here on the Permaculture Research Institute website.

George begins the article with a very pertinent question –

When people say we should adapt to climate change, do they have any idea what that means?

That is my problem.  I am privileged to be among the few who do have a clear vision of what that means.  To take just one aspect, simply stated, it means that even with the best will in the world, climate change is not something that can be adapted to whilst still retaining a semblance of modern life.

How on Earth do you go about explaining that concept to people in particular and the world in general?  How?  Even if people and the world wanted to know, the message is not something that they would willingly and wholeheartedly accept.  The concept itself leads to a turmoil of world upheaval such as no-one would ever have contemplated in their wildest dreams or nightmares.

That in essence is my dilemma.

George quotes the great conservationist Aldo Leopold, as I also did, somewhere, recently –

“An ecologist must either harden his shell and make believe that the consequences of science are none of his business, or he must be the doctor who sees the marks of death in a community that believes itself well and does not want to be told otherwise.”

George further partially quotes Leopold in saying that –

One of the penalties of an ecological education is that one lives alone in a world of wounds.

I also feel something of that world of wounds, that agony, that torment, of watching on a daily basis the inevitable events not only of climate collapse but ecological collapse, economic collapse and societal collapse, playing out on the world stage in front of my very eyes.  Expecting soon to add to that exposure the dreadful, awful, sight of population collapse as a direct or indirect result of those events.

Sometimes the enormity of it all becomes quite overwhelming and one feels infinitesimally small and insignificant in comparison.

Climate Change Adaptation?

Climate Change Adaptation?

Is there really nothing we can do?

It is true that we can do some tinkering around the edges.  At least the wealthy nations may be able to do that.  But what about everyone else?

There is the possibility of constructing a few sea walls, strengthening structures, making homes more ‘climate resilient’, rolling out more ‘renewables’, among other things that may have been placed under consideration.  However, all this activity displays is a basic inability to grasp the parameters of what climate change means for our world.

Whatever adaptation activity is undertaken, there remains the dual-headed dilemma of 1) do we attempt to stop or reduce the human activity feeding climate change first, or at the same time?  And 2) if we do either one of those things, or even if we don’t, where is all the wealth and physical resources going to come from to enable us to effectively adapt current systems, if effective adaptation were in fact possible?

Take one example.  Two thirds of all the world’s cities with 5 million or more inhabitants, lay in coastal regions that will be effected by sea level rise and will need to be relocated at some stage, whether that be in the next few years or before the end of the century.  Can you imagine the enormity of that task?  Abandoning land and infrastructure, re-housing the population, perhaps several billion people, and rebuilding the very valuable and costly infrastructure on which many more people have previously relied.  The potential cost is literally staggering.  Another description would be ‘impossible’.  There is just not the wealth and resources necessary to accomplish such a task.

Take another example.  How is the world going to feed itself?  Pretty much all of the global food growing regions will become incapable of producing food, either at all or in such reduced amounts as to render the total food supply grossly inadequate for even current population levels.  Many of these regions are already feeling the impacts of climate change.  One in eight people already have inadequate access to food.  Then there is the question of more migration away from these areas with consequent loss of land and infrastructure and these ‘food bowl’ areas include much of central US, most of Australia, central Africa, southern Europe and parts of China.  Desertification will become a huge issue over time and is already under way.

There is no means of adaptation to these issues.  They entail a getting out and a going somewhere else.  If a somewhere else can be found, is acceptable to those already living there and, importantly, is capable of sustaining the influx of additional souls.  On top of that, unless this process occurs very soon while transport infrastructure is still available, for most it will be undertaken on foot, carrying whatever they can on their backs.

Does that make the picture a little clearer?  Well, it is not the whole picture of course.  Many other perils await, such as diminished availability of water, increased risk of disease, resource conflicts, slavery, abuse and death.

On the whole I think a policy of adaptation, in the terms that it is currently viewed, stands little chance of any success and will most likely be seen to be a complete waste of time, energy and resources in the long term.  Although, building infrastructure appears to be the new flavour of the month among politicians who continue to seek means of resuscitating their ailing economies and increasing jobs.  They could better spend their time dismantling the complex societal structure we have built and preparing for something much smaller and simpler.  They won’t of course and future history will play out as it inevitably will as business continues as usual.  Any other course of action would require them to face full on to what portends to be a very insecure and perilous period ahead.

Perceived inadequacy and failure

Reviewing these supremely important concepts causes a certain overshadowing of my feelings of inadequacy and failure to communicate them effectively.

I remain undaunted by my inadequacy and unafraid of my failure to do so.

One day, soon, I expect to see a vindication of my feeble attempts.  May they have assisted someone, somewhere, to be more ready for that day than they otherwise may have been.